Elastic Thought

Validating Social Media Measurement

I had a client that identified a $40,000 drop in converted leads and revenue drop every time a negative customer service blog post reached the first page of search results in either Google or Yahoo!  Now, they did not do a double-blind study complete with placebo control group to know this.  They were active in their SEO monitoring efforts and correlated those trends with their lead flow online.  Then, using their business intelligence, they were able to monetize the lead generation to converted sales, thus giving us that $40,000 figure.  Pretty groundbreaking stuff for SEO research just a few year ago.

I bring this up in reference to the panel discussion I was moderating last week.  The topic of evening was Targeting and Segmenting audiences.  There was a mixed group in the audience spanning corporate marketing execs to agency creatives; traditional and digital.  There was some fantastic research and examples given on how to slice up an audience and target a message directly to any particular slice.  There was research a-plenty on testing that message before it is sent, and even more on how those audiences reacted to those messages.  Did they buy, did they opt-out, did they pass along information to others?  We even had good examples of what to do when research finds these people opti-ing out, tracking them down and giving an updated message (pre-researched) to bring them back into the buying cycle.  Very fascinating stuff.  I loved moderating because I truly learn a lot when I speak with these folks.  I'm a sucker for books like "Buyology: Truth and Lies About Why We Buy."

But when I asked what was happening to their research, how they were adjusting now that the model has changed to allow those consumers to talk back?

Silence.

Not for long.  It's a panel in front of a large audience, and I'm moderating...so we quickly recovered.  Well, for a short time.  I wasn't out to stump the panel.  I wanted to drive to a point about a new type of measurement and get some verification that the big guys out there were looking at this stuff.  But, there wasn't much more we could add, so we moved on.

Here is what I would have liked to dive into further.  In the new world of social media there are different measurements.  We know what they are since we use them to justify projects and calculate ROI.  A lot of them have to do with web traffic and click-throughs.  But I'd like to work with a research company to take that further.  Is there a correlation between negative postings in search results and converted sales like we spoke about with my client a few years back?  Are there other metrics?  What do you think?

Here is a list of possible things to measure they may have correlations.  Please, add other stats you think would be relevant in the comments:

1. Community Engagement--this could be how many people wrote on your Facebook fan page wall or average comments in company blog postings (or even spiked comments mapped to action offline), and other measures of engagement within the community you've built.
2. Outside Engagement--not all conversations take place inside of your community, but they do happen.  How many of these other communities are linking back to your community (discussion focused, not just linkbacks)?
3. Online "chatter" -- anyone monitoring social media wants to see the "chatter" level high and positive for their company/brand, but is there a correlation between amount of coverage in the blogs, twitter, and other platforms to company reputation, or even better, sales?
4. Numbers--I know I advocated looking beyond these, but they could be useful in this type of research.  How many fans, followers, friends, etc.

Now, I know there are many blogs out there talking about social media measurement.  My goal in this post is not to add to the chorus, but to bring about a validity to the numbers.  To parter with the "traditional" market research groups to bring some more light to the subject.

I have the sense from being in the industry long enough that these numbers do correlate to measurable action in the offline world, but what I'd like to see is the down-in-the-weeds research groups proving these theories out as much as they do the traditional.  I'm convinced there are some out there that do.  However, their work has not permeated the industry yet.  Let's add to this list and get it to them.  Let's find the hard-core numbers our clients are looking for.  Wouldn't it be great to walk into your client and show with statistics and research (verified) that for every "n" number of tweets mentioning your company positively, you get a "$y" increase in sales?  I know social media is more about community, sharing, and right now, customer service.  But if we want to convert more CFOs to writing checks for social media, to get more dyed-in-the-wool CMOs to take up the cause and move away from what's comfortable, this would be a great tool to have in the old carpetbag.

What do you think?

(cartoon: geek and poke)

Online Marketing, YouTube and Twitter Have Arrived

Actually, as it was quoted: “We now have indisputable proof that online marketing, 

YouTube and Twitter and all that it encompasses is meaningful and has arrived,” said Gene Grabowski, chair of the crisis and litigation practice at Levick Strategy Communications. “We are seeing real consequences to a mistake. If [social networks] didn’t matter, you wouldn’t see this type of reaction from J&J or consumers.”  [Advertising Age (11.17.08)]

This is in response to the Motrin ad campaign that implied moms carried their babies as fashion accessories.  In short, Kathy Widmer summed it up this way: "...we missed the mark and insulted many moms.  We didn't mean too...but we did."

Twitter moms that were offended (and had many followers) collected their outrage and Katja Presnal posted them on YouTube. (61,705 views as of this posting)  Motrin pulled the ad this past Sunday.

Two interesting things I see here:

The obvious is that a storm of activity in the social networks brought the legendary marketing machine at J&J to pull an ad and admit a mistake--

"We are listening to you, and we know that's the best place to start as we move ahead. More to come on that.  In the end, we have been reminded of age-old lessons that are tried and true:  a) When you make a mistake - own up to it, and say you’re sorry.  b) Learn from that mistake.  That’s all... for now. "

Which brought Gene Grabowski to announce in AdAge the arrival of the social media we've all been asking the companies to listen to and respect.

But the second thing I see here is that the ad was actually up for several weeks before it was noticed by Jessica Gottlieb in LA and she began her tweets.  That started the snowball.  it points to two things:  a) the influencer model still works online  and b) you don't know when these things will creep up on you.  The internet is not always immediate, so monitoring is very important.  You can alleviate this, though...or at the very least mitigate your risk.

I've always talked about the social media spaces as being "free" focus groups.  A lot of market researchers will say that the social media space is not "statistically relevant," doesn't have a "proper control group," and things like that.  But what would it hurt if J&J knew who some influential moms were (hell, they could have just went to Twitter Grader on this one and skipped the complicated influence rankings of social media folks)?  Could they have run some spots by them to get their opinion?  Chances are they would have caught this, and probably would have gotten good "press" from those they approached as being mindful of the online community.

Maybe now that "Online Marketing, YouTube and Twitter Have Arrived" they will next time.  I hope you do too.

More to come...

Social Media Marketing in a Recession

As the economy continues along it's path, we all know what happens.  Traditionally a downturn in the economy means cutting marketing budgets.  A recent survey of marketing professionals conducted on behalf of PRWeek indicates that 68 percent of marketers expect their advertising budgets to stay the same or decrease in the coming year.  Yet, 75% of those respondents indicated they were looking to increase the monies they allocate to digital marketing programs.  (Manning Selvage & Lee Survey, July 2008)

Adding to that sentiment, Forrester Research in February highlighted the fact that online marketing is trackable (think search marketing) and that senior marketing execs were looking to spend more dollars there as well. (Forrester Research, Strategies for Interactive Marketing In A Recession, February 2008).

But here is the most interesting point:  social marketing is seen as an up-and-comer in a recession since the resources needed to sustain a social media program are largely consumer-generated.  Yes, there are dollars to set up the tools, and then there are dollars to monitor, encourage, participate, and otherwise stoke the conversation, but they can have a life of their own and maintain themselves with little expenditure.  That is, if the community is compelling enough.

Here is a different take at social media and the recession.  A colleague of mine blogged about (what he calls) The New Convergence and it goes like this:

New technology + recession/bad economy = massive behavioral changes

This is a great way of looking at the behavioral changes not only of our target markets, but of the marketers themselves.  It also brings up another interesting point--earlier I blogged about the social media bubble and was intrigued as to what would happen if there were too many communities online vying for our attention?  What would happen if no property had enough critical mass that it could attract advertisers attention?

Convergence may be one theory as to how marketers can handle the long tail of options.  If consumers narrow their access to the Internet only on select devices, move even faster away from print to online (saving money in the meantime) and accessing TV (and other media) via the Internet instead of network, cable, and satellite TV, then maybe there will be a manageable amount of channels to once again begin reaching audiences in enough mass to make an impact.

That is, if the online communities can foster enough critical mass.

So, take heed everyone about to jump on the Social Media bandwagon next year.  This is a participatory medium.  You are competing for a lot of attention, and the interruptive communication of "old" marketing is much different than the attraction marketing of this new space.

• It's multi-way dialogue
• It's participatory
• It's user-generated

And, it's engaging.  People will be attracted to conversations and communities that are engaging.  Make sure you/we don't lose sight of this.  Not everything is meant to have it's own dialogue.

More to come...

Dude, that's not cool

Social Media is just that: social.  And sometimes you stumble over unwritten rules or tribal knowledge.  It happens to the best of us (though I'm not sure if I'm in the "best" part of that group).  But I learned a lesson today that I thought I'd pass along.  If you are sincere, participate well, and have good intentions, then you can recover from (and learn from) an error crossing those lines of tribal knowledge.

I bring this up because a lot of companies are afraid to enter the social media sphere for fear of doing something wrong, and in an attempt to better their reputation, they can end up hurting it.  And that is true, if they go about it the wrong way.  But the good news is this--there are multiple "right" ways and when seen as sincere, these companies can recover as well.  The social media environment is actually a friendly place and will help self-correct.  There is plenty of press on those that flame bad intentions, but I'm not sure there has been enough press (or blog posts) on the friendly side of the blogosphere.

I'm adding this post to the whirlwind of the blogosphere to mark that down.  Not everyone is just waiting to flame a company entering the social media environment.  We encourage it, we want the open dialogue with you, and if you come in really wanting to participate, you will not be immediately flamed or embarrassed publicly.  So long as you really want to connect and not just market.

I read once that a good rule of thumb for social media is to enter and act in it as a dinner guest.  Polite manners will get you far in this world.  In an old comment in LinkedIn, I had some fun and referenced the Beatles when saying "... and in the end...the love you take, is equal to the love you make."  BL Ochman updated that for me today:

"you get the most from the community by giving (a lot) more than you get. if you offer good links and insights, and help other people when they ask for help, you will become a respected member of the community."

Taking a cue from Chris Brogan: "... and in the end...the love you take... is equal to 1/12 of the love... you make."

The Social Media Bubble

What will we be left with after the Web 2.0 bubble?

Now don't get me wrong here.  There  have been blog posts going back 2 years predicting "Bubble 2.0" and it's collapse.  And yet, new social media sites are gaining users as astounding rates.  Even today.  So perhaps, there is not a bubble?  Perhaps we'll get through with no carnage?  Probably not.

But that's OK.   We're better off for this either way it plays out.

Let's quick view on some past bubbles.  The railroad bubble.  In the 1800's there was a proliferation of railways and the subsequent support companies that grow up around the industry.  Since this isn't a history blog, I'll cut to the chase.  It was a bubble, and when the market couldn't take any more railways being built, and when it couldn't sustain all the companies that sprout up around them, it burst.  But the good news is that it left this country a wonderful infrastructure of rail lines that were able to be a platform to a new rail-way industry (and might again).

The Internet bubble.  I don't have to go further into this for those of you reading a blog, but I would cut to the chase and point out that we were left with a wonderful infrastructure of fiber cutting across the country, and a changed business mentality.  Now, I'm still trying to figure out what we got out of the tulip bubble burst in 1634 (outside of the dozens of comparisons to the tech bubble in 2000).

So, is the social media craze in a bubble?  Perhaps.  But it may be less of a financial one, and one more in terms of our attention.  As the amount of media proliferates in the digital age, the less attention any individual channel can sequester.  And this proliferation is being driven by speculation--the 20 million bloggers and dozens of Web 2.0/social media sites popping up everyday are speculating on the unbundling of content and distribution.  "The economics of media--which are the new economics of technology--depend on the efficient allocation of attention." (Scott Karp - Publishing 2.0)

Can we sustain such a robust growth in social networking sites?  If there is one for every group of 3-5 people, have we succeeded in bringing everyone together in an open communications community?  Perhaps not.  And there will have to be a shake-out.  But that might not be a bad thing.  The Internet bubble did leave us with Google, Amazon, and the like.  And I believe this new shakeout will leave us with the next Google.  A site (or sites) that help allocate a finite amount of attention, and bring us together in a manageable network of interests and sites.

I'm curious, though.  What do you think the "Social Media Bubble Burst" will leave us with?

Digital Agencies Are Taking the Lead

A few months ago, we were writing about who should be lead agency and if Digital agencies could be lead or even AOR.  The thesis of which was that they could IF they had the strategy and big-picture thinking of an integrated AOR, NOT because they were Digital.  ( I believe we even got a Flavor Flav reference in there)

Last week an article was written in Ad Age entitled: "As the Lines Blur, Digital Agencies Are Taking Lead."  This article goes beyond the now commonplace warning articles that Digital is coming and that you need to get on board.  It shows how agencies like Tribal or Tequila are winning AOR for several brands and the trend is just beginning.  Here are the top 5 take-aways from the article:

1. These agencies went beyond great creative directions and, more importantly, they backed them up with strong strategic insights.
2. Clients are becoming less and less fixated on the type of agency handling their accounts and more on the individual brains behind the marketing campaigns.
3. A lot of the old, bigger agencies are trapped in their old structures, so it's really about who has the best talent.  And those same bigger agencies have holding-company politics to contend with, adding to their transition pains. 
4. Digital shops are closer to the consumer, in a better place to mine the rich insights and data available via the web.
5. A prediction: "Ten years from now, all agencies will be digital agencies."

Any agency reading this should take away a few tasks and begin to work them into their core DNA.  For starters, strategy.  Look to go beyond the creative, and when it comes to Digital, give tangible examples that go beyond listing the tools.  And then show how they relate back to the rest of the program.

I'm curious to see how the larger agencies react, though.  The hill is steep for them.  They are built into those old structures, and it's hard to break out of those.  These structures run deep, and no CEO blog and PR pitch that the agency is getting turned on to Digital is going to be the way to compete.  Something needs to fundamentally change.  I'm anxiously watching on the sidelines to see who does it first.  But look at #5 of the take-aways above--"all agencies will be digital agencies."  For those agencies that are nimble enough to make meaningful change, look there.  You have less and less time.  Perhaps the "Digital Group" is no longer a separate group.  Perhaps they do more than Web sites, and just perhaps, they are more strategic in their creativity rather than design focused.  Look to incorporate Digital people in all of the groups in your agency.  Seed the strategy throughout and watch the agency become more digital--organically.

If you are thinking about what agency to pick as you move forward, here is a guide. (of sorts)

I read a post recently that praised blogging because it made us all think again.  I hope this Digital push causes the same in the management of agencies.  Think about your client, think about their target audiences and craft the best message and campaign you can for them.  Let's see how that goes.

More to come...