What will we be left with after the Web 2.0 bubble?
Now don't get me wrong here. There have been blog posts going back 2 years predicting "Bubble 2.0" and it's collapse. And yet, new social media sites are gaining users as astounding rates. Even today. So perhaps, there is not a bubble? Perhaps we'll get through with no carnage? Probably not.
But that's OK. We're better off for this either way it plays out.
Let's quick view on some past bubbles. The railroad bubble. In the 1800's there was a proliferation of railways and the subsequent support companies that grow up around the industry. Since this isn't a history blog, I'll cut to the chase. It was a bubble, and when the market couldn't take any more railways being built, and when it couldn't sustain all the companies that sprout up around them, it burst. But the good news is that it left this country a wonderful infrastructure of rail lines that were able to be a platform to a new rail-way industry (and might again).
The Internet bubble. I don't have to go further into this for those of you reading a blog, but I would cut to the chase and point out that we were left with a wonderful infrastructure of fiber cutting across the country, and a changed business mentality. Now, I'm still trying to figure out what we got out of the tulip bubble burst in 1634 (outside of the dozens of comparisons to the tech bubble in 2000).
So, is the social media craze in a bubble? Perhaps. But it may be less of a financial one, and one more in terms of our attention. As the amount of media proliferates in the digital age, the less attention any individual channel can sequester. And this proliferation is being driven by speculation--the 20 million bloggers and dozens of Web 2.0/social media sites popping up everyday are speculating on the unbundling of content and distribution. "The economics of media--which are the new economics of technology--depend on the efficient allocation of attention." (Scott Karp - Publishing 2.0)
Can we sustain such a robust growth in social networking sites? If there is one for every group of 3-5 people, have we succeeded in bringing everyone together in an open communications community? Perhaps not. And there will have to be a shake-out. But that might not be a bad thing. The Internet bubble did leave us with Google, Amazon, and the like. And I believe this new shakeout will leave us with the next Google. A site (or sites) that help allocate a finite amount of attention, and bring us together in a manageable network of interests and sites.
I'm curious, though. What do you think the "Social Media Bubble Burst" will leave us with?
